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One of every five vehicles sold in Mexico last year was produced in the Asian country. Sales from Beijing grew by 50% in 2023. Brands such as Changan, JMC, Chirey or Jetour are on the rise. Vehicles manufactured in China are accelerating their pace in the Mexican market. According to official figures, 20% of the light vehicles sold last year in the Latin American country were imported from China, equivalent to 273,592 units, which also represents a growth of 50% compared to 2022. For now, The import of vehicles from China comes mainly from Western brands that have their manufacturing plants in that country. Thus, the cars are from General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, BMW and Renault. However, little by little the presence of specifically Chinese brands in Mexico has also been increasing. Among the names that landed in the last three years are: Changan, JMC, Chirey, Jaecoo, Jetour, among others. Mexico is the seventh largest automobile producer in the world and 90% of its production is destined for export, mainly to the United States. According to industry data, in 2023 the country shipped 3.3 million units abroad, a growth of 15% compared to 2022. In addition, auto companies in the country assembled a total of 3.7 million vehicles on last year, 14% more compared to the previous year. Guillermo Rosales, president of the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA), explains that precisely because 90% of Mexican production travels abroad, Mexico imports vehicles to supply the domestic market. According to their figures, of the total number of vehicles sold in Mexico, 66% are imported models and the rest are assembled in the country. Car sales in Latin America’s second largest economy increased by 24.4% during 2023, with the marketing of 1.3 million vehicles. “We have a positive outlook in the domestic market, for this year we are calculating an increase of 7% compared to last year due to economic growth and the perspective of a drop in interest rates, we could even think of reaching 1.5 million units sold,” predicts Rosales. Although for now the large Western brands continue to lead this commercial flow between Mexico and China, the interest of Chinese companies in landing in Mexico is increasing, not only as a seller, but now as shipowners as well. Chinese electric car maker BYD is looking for a site for a new plant in Mexico. The States of Nuevo León, Jalisco and Hidalgo have already raised their voices to offer some space for the largest Chinese electric car manufacturer to land in the national territory. According to Reuters, this new production center will seek to boost the company’s sales in the local market with an annual capacity of 150,000 cars. BYD has been marketing cars in the country for less than 12 months. According to Bloomberg, Roberto Arechederra Pacheco, head of the Ministry of Economic Development (Sedeco) of the state government of Jalisco, indicated in an interview that the Chinese company sent a delegation of executives who met with state officials a few days ago. “The company did a very in-depth analysis of how many educational centers there are, population volumes close to the places where they could put their plant,” the state official told the agency. José Zozaya, executive president of the Mexican Association of the Automotive Industry (AMIA), admits that in the sector it is already common to hear of the Chinese interest in building an assembly plant in Mexico. “We have not seen any investment from any company come to fruition, it is good that there is such appetite, hopefully it will translate into an investment that generates good jobs,” he says. The specialist in the sector points out that the inroads by Chinese brands into the Mexican market is part of a global trend due to the need for Asian producers to find new markets in the Middle East and Latin America. The head of the AMIA recognizes that the inroads made by Chinese cars in Mexico has changed marketing dynamics with more direct competition in prices with respect to their Western counterparts. “They have affected the Mexican market, obviously through more attractive prices, very attractive models and designs and extended warranties; it is a way to buy and the market grows,” he says. Zozaya recognizes that in this outpost of Chinese cars in the Mexican market, the auto parts supply chain still needs to be refined to avoid delays with its customers of months, as has happened in other parts of the world. For the automobile sector businessman and former Secretary of Economy of Nuevo León, Fernando Turner, BYD and other Asian auto parts companies see Mexico as a thriving market that can be the spearhead in the Latin American market. He does not rule out the possibility that these Chinese movements are part of the strategy of triangulating trade flows to the United States via Mexico to avoid the restrictions imposed by Washington: “The objective may be the United States, but in the long term.” In any case, Turner warns that it will not be so easy for Chinese assembly companies to enter the U.S. market on a large scale because they have many protection measures for their national producers. Source: https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2024-03-16/china-steps-on-the-gas-in-the-mexican-auto-market-the-long-term-goal-is-the-us.html

After years of pandemic-era overspending and high inflation, younger consumers are trying to regain control of their finances by cutting out all nonessential spending Courtney Hanson, a 35-year-old stay-at-home mom, was reviewing her purchases and was suddenly “disgusted” by the amount of frivolous spending she found, she said. Hanson, who lives in Jacksonville, Fla., with her husband and two children, had spent thousands of dollars on baby carriers. Some months, she and her husband spent $2,000 to $3,000 just on eating out. Like many parents, Hanson would take her kids shopping for fun. “I noticed I am very much caught up in consumerism — what’s hot on Instagram. I have my little collection of Stanleys, all that kind of stuff,” she said, referring to the brand of insulated water bottles that achieved viral social-media fame last year. “This past year, with inflation and just some more uncertainties, I look back and think about how much of that money could have been an additional savings for our family or additional investments.” The pandemic also took a toll on her husband’s business, she said, resulting in “months where my husband went without paying himself at all and we tapped into savings. … It’s been a roller coaster.” In January, Hanson started a “no-spend challenge,” a personal-finance trend in which people commit to only spending money on essentials and not buying anything new for a certain period of time — a week, a month or even a year. The challenge has been a popular New Year’s commitment, and Google searches for “no spend challenge” tend to spike in January. The particular rules of the challenge can vary depending on a person’s objectives, but the goal is to cut out unnecessary expenses and reevaluate their relationship with spending. Hanson is one of many consumers aiming to tamp down their spending this year. In a new survey by Intuit Credit Karma, 20% of Gen Z and millennial respondents said they intend to take part in a “no-buy year” in 2024; another 56% said they plan to do a “low-buy year.” The study defined “no buy” as a consumer’s commitment to not shopping except for items that need to be replaced, and “low buy” as shopping significantly less than they did last year. Other respondents planned to attempt shorter challenges — for example, a shorter “no-buy month.” In the two years following pandemic shutdowns, “we observed consumers spending money as a way to make up for lost time and then, later, as a way of coping with stress, leading to dwindling savings and high credit-card balances — in particular for Gen Z and millennials,” Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Intuit Credit Karma, said in a statement. Emotional spending isn’t the only problem: Many consumers also borrowed to cover basic expenses as the cost of living increased rapidly over the last two years. The result: 32% of Gen Z-ers and 46% of millennials now have more credit-card debt than emergency savings, a Bankrate study last month found. That has been accompanied by a sharp rise in delinquencies, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households,” Wilbert van der Klaauw, an economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in a statement. The personal-saving rate, which measures personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 3.8% in January, compared with 19.3% in January 2021. The top reason adults ages 18 to 43 in the Intuit Credit Karma study said they were trying a year of no buying or low buying was to build savings. Others said they felt guilty for overspending, were tired of living outside of their means, or had been impacted by the stress of constantly spending. The top categories people planned to cut out included luxury items, items trending on social media and collectibles. Those aiming to decrease spending said they would dial back on dining out, takeout, clothes and entertainment. Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/millennials-and-gen-z-are-trying-a-no-spend-year-to-rebuild-their-savings-will-it-be-enough-5cb71e3f?mod=home-page

Si vas a usar tu automóvil prevé situaciones de riesgo en carretera y acude con un mecánico para garantizar un viaje seguro y sin contratiempos. Los días de asueto de Semana Santa representan una oportunidad para descansar y reflexionar sobre los problemas que nos aquejan día a día, y si entre tus planes está salir de la ciudad para reflexionar es importante que consideres llevar un control de tus gastos para evitar sobreendeudarte. Para hacer una planeación de tus gastos más completa puedes invitar a la familia para elaborar un programa que les permite tener una vacaciones divertidas, comenta Juan Luis Ordaz, director de Educación Financiera Citibanamex. El especialista enumera algunos consejos que pueden ayudarte a hacer un plan financiero para estos días de asueto: 1) Decide con anticipación el destino. Revisa tu presupuesto y el monto máximo que planeas destinar para este propósito. 2) Evita endeudarte. considera que las vacaciones solo durarán algunos días y una deuda puede durar meses, incluso años, si no es planeada correctamente. "Si optas por esta opción procura liquidar tu deuda antes de salir de viaje. Una opción para considerar es adquirir un paquete vacacional a meses sin intereses, pero para la Semana Santa de 2025. Así tendrás todo un año para pagar tu paquete vacacional y viajar con toda la tranquilidad sin el peso de una obligación encima, refiere el especialista de Citibanamex. 3) Compara precios. Dedica un tiempo a buscar y comparar precios en internet, puedes encontrar ofertas que te ayuden a ahorrar. ¡No olvides revisar las políticas de cancelación y reembolso! 4) Aprovecha promociones y beneficios que te ofrece tu banco. ¿Viajas seguido? No olvides aprovechar al máximo los programas de viajero frecuente. 5) Compras anticipadas. Adquiere protector solar, trajes de baño y sandalias días antes del viaje, ya que suelen subir de precio en temporada de vacaciones. 6) Amplía tus opciones de destino. Lugares menos conocidos que no gozan de tanta popularidad pueden ofrecer mejores experiencias a un costo menor. 7) Realiza actividades al aire libre y aprovecha las atracciones gratuitas. Pregunta a la gente local, seguramente te darán recomendaciones adicionales sobre el lugar que visitas. 8) Considera tu seguridad. Si vas a usar tu automóvil prevé situaciones de riesgo en carretera y acude con un mecánico para garantizar un viaje seguro y sin contratiempos. Asegúrate de llevar una copia de tu póliza de seguro y no olvides revisar su vigencia. 9) ¿Te quedas en casa? Es el momento ideal para hacer limpieza a profundidad, realizar una mejora o compostura en el hogar, organizar una venta de garaje o simplemente disfrutar de nuestra comunidad y las opciones de recreación que ofrece. Fuente: https://expansion.mx/finanzas-personales/2024/03/19/vacaciones-de-semana-santa-2024-sin-endeudarse-citibanamex

The country ranks top of a list of 193 where illicit economic activities are classified by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime Human trafficking and smuggling, financial fraud, drug sales, piracy, and territorial extortion; in a global list of “criminal markets” comprised of 193 countries, Mexico comes out on top, exposing the reach that criminal groups have in Latin America’s second-largest economy. According to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), the non-profit organization behind the published index, the rising trends in Mexico are extremely concerning. The index is a biennial study that combines hundreds of indicators to rank the countries that suffer most from criminality. In this index, Myanmar, Colombia and Mexico occupy the top three spots. They are followed by Paraguay and the Republic of Congo. Source: Global index of organized crime 2023 by GI-TOC A sub-index within the report focuses on so-called “criminal markets” and how they are penetrating the mainstream economy. In this category, Mexico takes the crown, driven by the high incidence of illegal protection rackets, human trafficking, and the cocaine and synthetic drug trade. “What is evolving for the worse in terms of violence are two trends: protection money demands through extortion rackets and the criminalization of very strong industries such as agriculture,” says Romain Le Cour Grandmaison, a research specialist and one of the authors of the report. “The trends are very worrying.” Transport workers, who are now targets of organized crime and whose murders have been on the rise in recent years, have been among those who have complained the most about criminal markets, according to Le Cour Grandmaison. “It is not possible to escape criminal pressure in the transport business; based on protection money, this is partly how it is penetrating the economy to such an extent. In other words, if you don’t do what they say, something will happen to you, so you better pay up.” Although organized crime has moved into many productive activities in Mexico, the drug trade remains a high incidence indicator, according to the GI-TOC report: “Along with the expansion of the cocaine market in the Americas, there has been a significant increase in the synthetic drug trade,” it reads. “North America is the third most affected region in the world in this regard. Within the continent, Mexico appears to be the most affected by this market.” In 2022, the country stood out as a major player in the synthetic drug trade and witnessed an increase in the popularity and production of ketamine, methamphetamine and fentanyl, according to the authors of the report. The weapons used in organized crime come mostly from Mexico’s largest trading partner, the U.S., accounting for between 70% and 90% of the guns that turned up at crime scenes in Mexico last year. “Drug cartels obtain guns in Texas and Arizona and smuggle them across the border,” the report says. “This initial flow sets in motion a chain reaction that turns all Central American countries into transit and destination points for the illegal arms trade and fuels violence and insecurity.” While GI-TOC does not make recommendations specific to each of the major crime countries, it does refer to the problem of transnational organized crime as a global one, and recommends addressing it strategically and prioritizing financial crimes, which facilitate other types of crime. The organization also calls for a focus on the links between crime and corruption. “Organized crime remains a profound challenge around the world, posing a danger to both developed and developing countries and presenting an obstacle to much-needed international cooperation amid growing political, social and economic inequalities,” the report concludes. Source: https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-02-02/mexico-the-worlds-crime-market-par-excellence.html

Industrial side of the economy posts fastest growth in 17 months Despite the gloomy expectations of recent years, global growth has held up relatively well. However, a succession of shocks–the pandemic, inflation, and the Ukraine war–has tested the resilience of the U.S., Europe, and China in disparate ways. Most significantly, the U.S., starting as a laggard in 2020, is the only bloc that is making a run at returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. To capture the three blocs’ resilience and new growth trajectories, it is not sufficient to compare their growth rates as each has structural components. Instead, the changing fortunes are revealed in each bloc’s ability–or lack thereof–to fight its way back to their pre-pandemic growth path. Today, two questions are vital: Have the conflagrations of recent years pushed the blocs off their old path? If so, can they return to it? The answers demonstrate the three blocs’ true resilience and allow us to sketch their paths ahead. The U.S. has pushed itself to the front The U.S. economy has experienced the most significant reversal of fortunes, fighting back to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory not once, but twice. It may even end up overshooting that old trend. After a savage initial shock, the U.S. managed to recover its old trend path thanks to extraordinary stimulus. But inflation and the rapidly rising rates that came with it pushed output off its trend path a second time. Defying the doubters, the economy delivered a strong soft landing putting the U.S. on a path to its pre-pandemic trend for a second time–a testament to truly remarkable resilience. There are at least three reasons why U.S. resilience is more like a flywheel than a finite, depletable resource. First, strong diversification meant that as the goods overshoot faded in early 2021, a continued recovery in services offset that drag. Second, labor market strength was protected by a significant backlog of demand for workers. Third, household balance sheets were in historically strong shape providing Americans with room to consume even as their real incomes fell. These strong sources of resilience have been enough to withstand the impact of inflation on incomes and budgets as well as the rapid tightening by monetary policymakers. There is little reason to assume that such resilience will come to a sudden stop. And it may turn out even better than that. Near-term, the return of real income growth is set to push the economy. And in the longer term, durable labor market tightness looks set to spark higher productivity growth as firms will be forced to turn to technology to compensate for scarce labor. This makes an overshoot of the old trend very plausible. Severe challenges have broken the eurozone’s momentum The eurozone had its own, less favorable, reversal of fortunes. The Ukraine war dealt the bloc a particularly bad hand. Though the eurozone too proved resilient, avoiding a recession in the nearly two years since the war started, its growth momentum is broken, and the bloc is now pushed off its pre-pandemic course. Though the eurozone recovery was fueled by less significant stimulus than the U.S., it appeared to be on track to take a run at a full trend recovery–until the start of the Ukraine war. A downturn was avoided in a compelling show of resilience, but the shock hit hard and made a trend recovery unlikely. The eurozone’s greater exposure to goods production, Russian energy, and exports left it poorly positioned for the challenges of 2022 and 2023. Rapid adjustments and response to the energy shock showed resilience and proved wrong the initial fears of a severe recession and mothballed production. However, significant pressure on household budgets has meant stagnant growth. Unlike the pandemic-related shock, the energy shock likely downgrades the eurozone’s underlying growth potential by leaving a more lasting impact on real incomes and by weighing on competitiveness at the margin. Even as growth returns in 2024, this makes a full recovery to the old trend unlikely. An indelible mark has been left on the eurozone economy, a fate the U.S. avoided. China’s reversal of fortunes China’s path is another astonishing reversal of fortunes. Its initial recovery was the envy of the rest of the world, yet the economy has now been pushed off its pre-pandemic trend and a return to it looks challenging. Though China’s zero-COVID approach delivered a picture-perfect trend recovery, it ultimately required renewed lockdowns that weighed on growth. At the same time, China’s economic model is undergoing a shift away from investment and toward consumption. The exit from zero-COVID policies was expected to drive a wave of revenge consumption that would catapult China’s economy back to trend. So strong was the conviction in this bounce that many thought the resurgent Chinese consumer would stoke global inflation even further in 2023. However, Chinese consumers lacked the confidence and spending power. Slumps in other areas of the economy, particularly real estate, precluded the hoped-for boom. Can China return to its old trend path? Successful changes to its growth model have been key to the remarkable record of China’s growth over the last 30 years. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, exports were the engine of growth. With the collapse in Western demand, China found a more reliable source of demand in infrastructure and real estate. A boom in building helped drive another decade of impressive growth but has run out of steam. The third shift, replacing investment with consumption as the engine of growth, is well underway but recent history demonstrates the difficulty of achieving instant rewards. It is also a reminder that consumption-driven growth cannot be managed as stringently as is the case with investments. Though a trend recovery looks harder now, China’s slowdown should be seen as a sign of overall success. As economies grow richer, their ability to sustain high growth necessarily declines. Labor growth slows, capital is already accumulated significantly, and therefore continued progress depends on the hardest source of growth–productivity growth. Four years after the start of COVID-19, the three blocs each appear to have settled into new growth trajectories. Even so, new disruptions will follow, and therein lies the challenge for those who need to assess macroeconomic risk. The unpredictability puts a premium on agility and rapid execution when new surprises hit. There is no master plan, no permanent winner, and a fair number of false alarms along the way. Despite the volatility, the global competition for growth is not an impenetrable mystery but an ongoing evolution that requires constant judgment. Source: https://fortune.com/2024/02/12/us-europe-china-post-pandemic-race-economic-growth/

La comunicación, el respeto y la flexibilidad son claves para tener unas finanzas saludables y garantizar el éxito en la relación. Echa un vistazo a estos consejos. La gestión financiera en una relación de pareja es crucial para mantener una convivencia armoniosa y un ambiente familiar sano. El tema del dinero puede llegar a ser un tabú y posiblemente crear conflictos. El Día de San Valentín, además de ser una fecha para planear un festejo romántico, puede convertirse también en un momento para revisar o reorganizar las finanzas en pareja y mantener la armonía. Juan Luis Ordaz, director de educación financiera de Citibanamex, nos comparte ocho consejos para aprovechar esta celebración y lograr cambios que a largo plazo les traerán muchos beneficios como pareja. Comunicación abierta, antes de comenzar una vida en pareja, o para tratar de mejorarla, es fundamental hablar de dinero (ingresos, gastos, deudas y hábitos financieros de ahorro e inversión). Si algún miembro de la pareja tiene una carga financiera considerable, es importante abordar el tema para que no afecte la economía de la pareja en su conjunto. Distribución proporcional, decidir cuánto aportará cada uno para financiar la vida en pareja puede llegar a ser todo un reto. Si bien la fórmula 50/50 puede sonar como la mejor opción, no siempre es así. Consideren la cantidad de ingresos de cada uno y dividan los gastos de manera proporcional. Excedentes y ahorros, después de cubrir los gastos básicos, lo ideal es tener un monto excedente el cual deberá ser destinado al ahorro y a la inversión; aquí es donde pueden surgir algunas diferencias. Decidan en pareja si está práctica será individual o compartida. Una vez tomada la decisión investiguen sobre cuál es la opción que más les convenza y el mejor producto para ustedes. Sueños que se convierten en metas, hablen en pareja sobre sus metas en conjunto. ¿Desean comprar una casa, viajar o simplemente ahorrar para una jubilación tranquila? Establezcan objetivos juntos y trabajen en equipo para alcanzarlos. Fondo de emergencia, tener un colchón financiero nos dará la tranquilidad de poder enfrentar un imprevisto o contingencia financiera. Si está práctica se complementa con protecciones adicionales como seguro de vida, médico y de hogar reduciremos al mínimo la posibilidad de afectar nuestras finanzas ante una emergencia. Recuerda que una pareja precavida vale por dos. Informa a tu pareja de los seguros y productos financieros de los cuales es beneficiario, si ya hicieron la mayor parte de protegerse a sí mismos, a su pareja, hijos y su patrimonio asegúrense de tener la documentación en orden en un lugar que ambos ubiquen a la perfección, así podrán actuar de inmediato ante alguna contingencia. ¿Infidelidad financiera? Se puede dar cuando un miembro de la pareja realiza y oculta un gasto no planeado. Si bien hay muchas tentaciones, lo mejor siempre será tomar una decisión en pareja para evitar tener conflictos por dinero. ¡Aprendan juntos! Nunca está de más aprender sobre algo nuevo y desarrollar nuevas habilidades. Está práctica se puede potenciar si se realiza en pareja. Considera que un nuevo conocimiento puede convertirse en una potencial fuente de ingresos adicionales. Cada pareja es única y lo más importante es encontrar una dinámica que les funcione a ambos. La comunicación, el respeto y la flexibilidad son clave no solo para tener unas finanzas saludables, sino también para garantizar el éxito en la relación. fuente: https://www.forbes.com.mx/como-llevar-las-finanzas-en-pareja-y-tener-una-relacion-exitosa/

Reforms to boost investment and strengthen fiscal policy could help turn the tide WASHINGTON, Jan. 9, 2024— As the world nears the midpoint of what was intended to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to rack up a sorry record by the end of 2024 —the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. By one measure, the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago: the risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the U.S. economy. But mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy. Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades. Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic . Meanwhile, borrowing costs for developing economies—especially those with poor credit ratings—are likely to remain steep with global interest rates stuck at four-decade highs in inflation-adjusted terms. Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row—from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s. Developing economies are projected to grow just 3.9%, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade. After a disappointing performance last year, low-income countries should grow 5.5%, weaker than previously expected. By the end of 2024, people in about one out of every four developing countries and about 40% of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the COVID pandemic in 2019. In advanced economies, meanwhile, growth is set to slow to 1.2% this year from 1.5% in 2023. “Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. “Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries—especially the poorest—stuck in a trap: with paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people. That would obstruct progress on many global priorities. Opportunities still exist to turn the tide. This report offers a clear way forward: it spells out the transformation that can be achieved if governments act now to accelerate investment and strengthen fiscal policy frameworks.” To tackle climate change and achieve other key global development goals by 2030, developing countries will need to deliver a formidable increase in investment —about $2.4 trillion per year. Without a comprehensive policy package, prospects for such an increase are not bright. Per capita investment growth in developing economies between 2023 and 2024 is expected to average only 3.7%, just over half the rate of the previous two decades. The report offers the first global analysis of what it will take to generate a sustained investment boom, drawing from the experience of 35 advanced economies and 69 developing economies over the past 70 years. It finds that developing economies often reap an economic windfall when they accelerate per capita investment growth to at least 4% and sustain it for six years or more: the pace of convergence with advanced-economy income levels speeds up, the poverty rate declines more swiftly, and productivity growth quadruples. Other benefits also materialize during these booms: among other things, inflation falls, fiscal and external positions improve, and people’s access to the internet expands rapidly. “Investment booms have the potential to transform developing economies and help them speed up the energy transition and achieve a wide variety of development objectives,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “To spark such booms, developing economies need to implement comprehensive policy packages to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border trade and financial flows, improve the investment climate, and strengthen the quality of institutions. That is hard work, but many developing economies have been able to do it before. Doing it again will help mitigate the projected slowdown in potential growth in the rest of this decade.” The latest Global Economic Prospects also identifies what two-thirds of developing countries—commodity exporters specifically—can do to avoid boom-and-bust cycles. The report finds that governments in these countries often adopt fiscal policies that intensify booms and busts. When increases in commodity prices boost growth by 1 percentage point, for example, governments increase spending in ways that boost growth by an additional 0.2 percentage point. In general, in good times, fiscal policy tends to overheat the economy. In bad times it deepens the slump. This “procyclicality” is 30 percent stronger in commodity-exporting developing economies than it is in other developing economies. Fiscal policies also tend to be 40 percent more volatile in these economies than in other developing economies. The instability associated with higher procyclicality and volatility of fiscal policy produces a chronic drag on the growth prospects of commodity-exporting developing economies. The drag can be reduced—by putting in place a fiscal framework that helps discipline government spending, by adopting flexible exchange-rate regimes, and by avoiding restrictions on the movement of international capital. On average, these policy measures could help commodity exporters in developing economies boost their per capita GDP growth by as much as 1 percentage point every four or five years. Countries can also benefit by building sovereign-wealth funds and other rainy-day funds that can be deployed quickly in an emergency. Source: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/01/09/global-economic-prospects-january-2024-press-release?intcid=ecr_hp_headerB_2024-01-09-GEPPressRelease

Banorte’s Alejandro Padilla and UBS’ Rafael de la Fuente told Bloomberg Línea that the country’s presidential elections shouldn’t disrupt momentum from private consumption and investment Mexico City — Mexico is poised to reignite its private consumption and investment engines in 2024, propelling growth in Latin America’s second-largest economy as the country goes through its longest-ever electoral period, two of the countries top analysts said to Bloomberg Línea. Their predictions were made as a record level of public spending was set in motion by the current administration, and despite potential risks associated with Mexico’s presidential election and expectations of an economic slowdown in the United States. Alejandro Padilla, Chief Economist at Banorte, and Rafael de la Fuente, Chief Economist for Latin America at UBS, both of whom are forecasting robust GDP growth for Mexico in 2024, received Focus Economics’ 2023 Best Economic Forecasters award. The presidential election is not sounding any alarms in the Mexican market just yet, Padilla and de la Fuente said. The electoral contest will unfold within a democratic and legal framework, with no expectations of any major threats to macroeconomic stability in Mexico, regardless of whether Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez, the leading candidates, end up securing the presidency. “We need to be vigilant about the progress of the electoral process, but the baseline scenario is that there will be continuity in macroeconomic stability,” stated Padilla. “If the political environment becomes more complex due to closely contested elections, that could be a concerning situation. However, current polls indicate a low probability” of that happening, De la Fuente noted. Nearshoring and foreign investment are two of the other main variables to monitor this year, due to their considerable impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. ECONOMIC FORECASTS FROM AMLO AND BANXICO At the end of 2023, the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration confirmed its projection of growth between 2.5% to 3.5% for the Mexican economy in 2024. The government anticipated GDP growth for the final year of AMLO’s term would be driven by private consumption and higher levels of both public and private sector investment. Household consumption in 2024 was expected to be fueled by higher minimum wages and the implementation of various social programs. After a 20% minimum wage hike as of January, 5.5% of the approved federal budget of MXN$9 trillion will be attributable to only three social programs: Pensions for Older Adults, Pensions for People with Disabilities, and “Sembrando Vida”. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico), for its part, adjusted its growth forecast upward in Novembre. The revision was attributed to the expansive fiscal measures that were announced ahead of the final year of the AMLO administration. Banxico now estimates that the economy will grow between 2.3% and 3.7% in 2024. This figure surpasses the 2.1% forecasted at the end of August. Notably, the central bank believes that economic activity will be stronger in the first half of the year, aligning with historical patterns observed in election years. ALEJANDRO PADILLA: SOCIAL PROGRAMS SUPPORT CONSUMPTION INERTIA Alejandro Padilla, Deputy General Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banorte, told Bloomberg Línea that his bank is expecting growth of 2.4% in 2024, supported by catalysts observed in 2023, such as private consumption, investment, remittances, and favorable conditions in the labor market and bank credit. While the economy will expand less than the 3.3% estimated for 2023, this year will have several fundamentals that will follow through, such as investment in infrastructure projects that the government aims to complete before the June 2 elections and foreign investment attracted by nearshoring initiatives. Padilla emphasized that public spending on social programs will be a factor to consider in 2024, as it accounts for 2.1 percentage points of the GDP and contributes to consumption. “We think that the first half of the year will be supported by fiscal stimulus, namely social programs and infrastructure projects, which will help the economy maintain a favorable momentum for consumption and investment,” said Padilla. Elections in the United States are another factor to consider in 2024, especially if Donald Trump becomes the Republican Party’s candidate and uses migration and trade as political themes. However, official candidates are yet to be confirmed, and Banorte does not consider a recession in the US as its baseline scenario, but rather a moderation of activity, which would affect Mexican performance, dependent on the US by about 58%. RAFAEL DE LA FUENTE: LOWER DYNAMISM, BUT NO COLLAPSE Rafael de la Fuente, Chief Economist for Latin America at UBS, mentioned that the Swiss lender is projecting growth of 2.2% for 2024, still discounting a recession in the United States. Without economic contraction north of the border, growth would rise to between 2.5% and 2.7%. He also noted that both private domestic consumption and investment will continue to be the two components that will drive domestic demand and overall economic performance in Latin America’s second-largest economy. De la Fuente expects a loss of dynamism in the external sector, which has already begun to be seen in some sectors of the Mexican economy, such as the non-automotive manufacturing sector. “While some growth drivers of 2023 may lose momentum in 2024, such as employment,” he doesn’t believe it will be a year of collapse. “He thinks it could be a year where growth remains solid, especially if there is no recession in the US, and the numbers are likely to be close to what the authorities suggest.” Despite the potential slowdown in the second half of 2024, the forecast of 2.2% for Mexico’s GDP is slightly higher than its historical average, indicating the strength of the Mexican economy in a scenario of a recession in the US halfway through the year. “De la Fuente believes that consumption will benefit from real wages gaining space,” mainly due to falling inflation and revisions in contractual wages following the minimum wage increase. Regarding investment, he said that private investment has gained momentum in non-residential construction, recognizing that part of the investment boom has a significant public component in the government’s mega-projects. “He added that while private investment might lose strength in the second half of 2024, it can be compensated by nearshoring.” Source: https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/what-to-expect-for-the-mexican-economy-in-2024-according-to-two-top-economic-forecasters/#:~:text=Mexico%20City%20%E2%80%94%20Mexico%20is%20poised,analysts%20said%20to%20Bloomberg%20L%C3%ADnea.

La cuesta de enero debería ser el primer gasto extraordinario que contemplar en cualquier presupuesto, todos los años llega en la misma fecha pero siempre son los mismos errores. ¿Por qué? La mayoría de la gente sigue sin contemplar el gasto excesivo de Navidad, los nuevos impuestos y leyes que entran en vigor a partir del 1 de enero, la situación económica del país o del sector en el que trabajan y, por ende, la deficiente planificación del presupuesto personal. Ahora bien, más allá de la cuesta de enero, aún hay una serie de errores comunes que lastran tus finanzas todo el año. Estos incluyen no revisar tus facturas de suministro o tener contratadas todas las plataformas de streaming cuando puedes pasar meses sin visitar varias de ellas. Estas son las 13 errores que deberías evitar si quieres que esta sea tu última cuesta de enero. 1. CONFIAR EN TU INTUICIÓN PARA LLEGAR A FIN DE MES No tener un registro de gastos te impide conocer cuánto gastas al mes realmente. Menos aún conocer en qué lo gastas. Tu banco puede ofrecerte una gráfica de ingresos y gastos, pero la mayoría de las veces no están bien categorizados y, cuando los revisas, ya no te acuerdas qué gasto corresponde a cada tienda. Necesitas un registro de gastos. De esta forma, podrás crear tus propias categorías de gastos y revisar en qué te estás dejando cientos de pesos sin darte cuenta. 2. EMPEZAR EL AÑO SIN UN PRESUPUESTO Con el registro de gastos podrás adelantarte a qué necesitas cada mes y a recortar los gastos que te están impidiendo ahorrar. No todos los meses tienes los mismos desembolsos. Unos tienes cumpleaños, en otros viajes o días festivos como Navidades. Cuando ya sepas en qué gastas tu dinero, elabora un presupuesto con una plantilla de Excel gratuita para que ningún gasto te tome por sorpresa y puedas construir tu ahorro de emergencias. Aquí tienes una plantilla de Google Sheet para hacer el registro de gastos y el presupuesto a la vez. 3. NO INCLUIR LA CUESTA DE ENERO Y LOS GASTOS PERIÓDICOS EN TU PRESUPUESTO Con un presupuesto, la cuesta de enero debería estar contemplada en tu planificación de gastos, pero suele ser un error bastante común no contemplarla. Asimismo, deberías tener especial cuidado con los gastos que se repiten de forma anual. Los seguros, los impuestos o los abonos del gimnasio, por ejemplo. Al final, no puedes (ni tampoco es necesario) ver detalladamente en qué se te va cada céntimo. Pero hay gastos que, como la cuesta, no deberías pasar por alto ya que pueden hacer mucho daño en tu planificación. 4. GASTOS HORMIGA En enero tienes que esforzarte más de lo normal para no gastar en cosas innecesarias, sobre todo con las rebajas de invierno a la vuelta de la esquina. Aprovecha esta necesidad para recortar gastos hormiga como el café del mediodía, las plataformas de streaming que nunca utilizas o los malos vicios. 5. SER DEMASIADO AMBICIOSO CON TUS PROPÓSITOS DE AÑO NUEVO Has de tener cuidado con los propósitos de año nuevo: tienes que comprometerte con, al menos, uno. Pero, lo primero, es que no hagan vacíen tus bolsillos. No te cases con una cuota anual del gimnasio si es la primera vez que pisas uno, por ejemplo. Lo mismo para cualquier otro nuevo hobby o reto que te propongas que implique un desembolso significativo de dinero. 6. ENDEUDARTE PARA VIVIR ENCIMA DE TUS POSIBILIDADES Si incluyendo la cuesta de enero en tu presupuesto, sigues necesitando más dinero, tienes que revisar tu presupuesto y plantearte un serio recorte de gastos. Mientras construyes tu ahorro de emergencia y buscas cómo aumentar tus ingresos, no deberías vivir en una casa que cuesta el doble de lo que puedes pagar, desplazarte en coche para ir a comprar a una tienda a la que puedes ir a pie o gastar en ropa porque es está de rebajas. 7. SACAR DINERO DEL AHORRO DE EMERGENCIA PORQUE NO TIENES UN PLAN El ahorro de emergencia es para imprevistos muy urgentes. Comprarte el nuevo iPhone no entra en esta categoría. No llegar a final de mes por la cuesta de enero, tampoco es excusa. Este fondo de emergencia debe cubrir entre tres y nueve meses de gastos. 8. SEGUIR SIN UN HÁBITO DE AHORRO A estas alturas, no puedes seguir gastando todo lo que ganas. Necesitas tener ahorro para imprevistos, inversiones a futuro (como la educación, un coche, la AFORE…) y para tus gustos. Puede que nunca hayas escuchando hablar del presupuesto personal, pero no tienes excusa para no conocer sobre los viejos métodos de ahorro o los que se han puesto de moda en los últimos años, como el ahorro progresivo o el preahorro. 9. NO ENTERARTE DE QUÉ COSAS CAMBIAN ESTE AÑO QUE AFECTAN A TU BOLSILLO Cada año entran en vigor cambios que afectan a tu bolsillo o a tus posesiones. No siempre tienen por qué afectarte, pero sólo hay una forma de saberlo: informándote. Algunos de los cambios más conocidos son el precio de ciertos alimentos, los impuestos, las tarifas de servicios o el transporte público. 10. NO PLANIFICAR LA DECLARACIÓN DE IMPUESTOS Cuando menos te lo esperes, es abril y la declaración de impuestos empieza a llamar a tu puerta. El final del año o el inicio del siguiente es un buen momento para poner en orden las cuentas, las inversiones o las posibles deducciones. Fuente: https://businessinsider.mx/errores-de-la-cuesta-de-enero-arruinan-finanzas-anuales/

Wondering when inflation will go down? We’re optimistic about what’s ahead. For now, it looks like inflation will return to normal without a recession. We expect inflation’s effect to fade through the end of 2023 and into 2024 after it reached its highest level in over 40 years in 2022. In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that the drop in inflation is driven principally by the unwinding of price spikes owing to supply chain resolutions, along with a moderated pace of economic growth resulting from the Federal Reserve’s tightening. We expect inflation to average 1.8% from 2024 to 2027—undershooting the Fed’s 2% inflation target. But if inflation proves stickier than expected, the Fed stands ready to induce a recession to bring inflation down to 2%. PCE Inflation (%) Data as of Oct 9, 2023 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morningstar Headline Inflation Has Plunged Since Mid-2022 Personal Consumption Expenditures Index inflation,which is our (and the Fed’s) preferred inflation measure, has fallen from a peak of 7.0% year-over-year in June 2022 to an estimated 3.3% as of July 2023. Consumer Price Index inflation, which uses a narrower definition of household consumer expenditures, has fallen even more dramatically year over year. It had peaked at higher rates owing to a higher weighting in energy. The decline in core inflation has been less impressive, but that’s starting to change. Inflation Measures, % Growth Year Over Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Categories That Have Played an Outsize Role in Excess Inflation The postpandemic jump in inflation began with only a handful of spending categories. When excess inflation (the difference from where inflation stood before the pandemic) was at its highest in the second quarter of 2022, the inflation rate was 6.8%. Durable goods, energy, and food at home accounted for 70% of that excess inflation, despite being only 20% of total consumption. Since then, inflation has spread to several other categories. These other categories, which include housing, vehicles, and more, now account for about half of excess inflation. Still, the partial deflation in these categories has helped slow the overall inflation rate substantially. And, with prices in these categories still way above their prepandemic trends, there’s room for much more deflation in coming years. PCE Excess Inflation by Category % contribution to cumulative excess inflation vs. fourth-quarter 2019. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Where We Expect Inflation to Fall the Most Over 2023-27 Given the role of industry-specific supply shocks in driving inflation, we take a bottom-up approach to forecasting inflation for the next five years. That is, we start by examining the underlying components and work toward macro trends. Here’s where we expect the greatest drop in inflation (and sometimes outright deflation) between 2023 and 2027: Durables: Major supply constraints are lifting. In particular, the semiconductor market is likely to flip from shortage to glut over the next few years. The normalization of spending patterns (shifting back to services) is also easing pricing pressure on goods. We expect about one third of the excess inflation in durables to unwind by 2027. Food and energy: We expect prices to subside as the industry adjusts to disruption from factors such as the Ukraine war, and they’re already starting to fall due to broad supply chain relief. Housing: Housinginflation has accelerated markedly over the past year, but we don’t expect this to last. It’s already starting to fall in response to moderating rents. In all other components of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, we expect moderate wage growth and the absence of any long-lasting supply disruptions to keep inflation at restrained levels. And the economy growing well below potential through 2024 will cause widespread deflationary pressure. PCE Inflation Forecast: Key Components (% Growth) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Morningstar. Supply Chain Healing Will Bring Goods Prices Down Numerous production and logistical disruptions have contributed to inflation in durables and other parts of the economy. But supply chains are healing as demand normalizes and capacity catches up: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is even showing looser supply chain conditions than before the pandemic. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (New York Fed) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. There’s more help on the way. One indicator on the logistics side is that there are enough container ships set to be delivered over the next several years to expand the current fleet by 30%. And manufacturing capacity is expanding in the United States and other major economies, such as China. Other key takeaways about supply chains include: Supply chain improvement won’t be fully reflected in lower prices right away, just as core goods prices didn’t peak until about a year after supply chain paralysis set in. But in addition to moderating prices for consumer goods, we’re already seeing producer prices upstream of consumer prices starting to deflate. Transport costs are falling sharply owing to lower fuel prices and a burgeoning logistics glut. Retailers’ gross margins are still quite high, but competitive pressures should bring them back down to size over the next several years. Housing Market Inflation in 2023 and Beyond Because price indexes capture the cost of living, and most people don’t sign a new lease or buy a new house every year, it takes time for housing prices in price indexes to capture changing market conditions. For this reason, CPI inflation is still running fairly hot owing to the accumulated runup in market rents since 2021. That said, here’s where the housing market currently stands: Market rents are now decelerating sharply, in response to falling housing demand. Rent growth fell to only about 3% year over year as of July 2023, from about 15% as of May 2022. This is causing CPI shelter to finally decelerate, which we expect to persist over the next year until housing inflation returns to normal. After 2023, we expect home prices to remain flat. We expect weak home demand will continue to weigh on housing prices and eventually converge most of the way back to the prepandemic trend. This will return the CPI shelter index to normal. Lower housing prices will also aid in returning housing affordability to more reasonable levels. From a cost perspective, lower home prices should become more palatable for builders as easing supply constraints reduce the cost of construction inputs. A Soft Landing Is Our Base Case Our base case is that inflation will return to normal in 2024, even as real gross domestic product growth remains positive in year-over-year terms—a “soft landing.” Over the past year, inflation has fallen around 300 basis points even as real GDP growth has accelerated. That performance has defied the predictions of those in the stagflation camp, who thought that a deep economic slump would be needed to root out entrenched inflation. Instead, the inflation-GDP trade-off has been very kind, thanks to the loosening of supply constraints, as we had long anticipated. Still, we’ve been surprised by the resiliency of economic growth in the face of aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. This means the “overheating” scenario has increased in probability, where the economy grows at a rollicking pace and inflation remains in the 3%-4% range. We still think that the Fed’s rate hikes executed thus far will eventually slow GDP growth sufficiently and that inflation will drop to 2% (while avoiding an outright recession). The effects of these rate hikes are still accumulating throughout the economy as borrowers roll over to higher interest rates and exhaust their financial cushions. Source: https://www.morningstar.com/economy/why-we-expect-inflation-fall-2024

That outlook is based on our economists’ prediction for strong income growth (amid cooling inflation and a robust job market), their expectation that rate hikes have already delivered their biggest hits to GDP growth, and their view that manufacturing will recover. Central banks, meanwhile, will have room to reduce interest rates if they’re concerned about the economy slowing. “This is an important insurance policy against a recession,” Goldman Sachs Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius writes in the team’s report titled Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part Is Over. Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 2.6% next year on an annual average basis, compared with the 2.1% consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In fact, Goldman Sachs Research’s forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 are more optimistic than the consensus for eight of the world’s nine largest economies, as of Nov. 8, 2023. And notably, our economists expect US growth to outpace its developed market peers again. The global economy fared better than many economists expected in 2023 Goldman Sachs Research was also optimistic about the global economy in 2023 — and the results have exceeded even our own economists’ expectations. Solid GDP growth has translated into more-than-solid labor market performance. The unemployment rate across all the economies covered by our analysts (and with high-quality labor market data) now stands about 0.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. Importantly, this improvement is visible even in some key economies that have seen very low real GDP growth, such as the Euro area. Will inflation continue to cool in 2024? Importantly, GDP growth and employment have been surprisingly buoyant among economies that experienced a large and unwanted inflation surge in 2021-2022. (Policymakers in Japan, by contrast, wanted inflation.) And inflation is now cooling across G10 and emerging market economies. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Hatzius writes. The supply and demand of goods have grown more balanced, and the impact of this on core goods disinflation is still unfolding and is forecast to continue through most of 2024. Shelter inflation is expected to have considerably further to fall. Most crucially, the supply-demand balance in the labor market continues to improve. Goldman Sachs Research’s jobs-workers gap — measured as job openings minus unemployed workers — is trending down everywhere. The adjustment has so far occurred almost entirely in a benign fashion, as job openings have declined without a rise in unemployment. Our economists forecast this year’s decline in inflation to continue in 2024: sequential core inflation is predicted to fall from 3% now to an average 2-2.5% range across the G10 (excluding Japan). “That would be broadly consistent with the inflation targets of most developed market central banks by the end of 2024,” Hatzius writes. “If anything, we think that the risks to the achievement of target-consistent inflation are on the earlier side.” Many big economies will avoid recession in 2024 Over the past year, our economists have been relatively optimistic that major economies can avoid a recession. In the team’s report, they reaffirm their longstanding view that the probability of a US recession is much lower than commonly appreciated — at just 15% over the next 12 months. There are four main reasons Goldman Sachs Research is optimistic about growth next year. Our economists have a positive outlook for real disposable income growth at a time of much lower headline inflation and still-strong labor markets. While they predict US real income growth will slow from its very strong 2023 pace, they think it will still be enough to support consumption and GDP growth of at least 2%. Meanwhile, both the Euro area and the UK are expected to have a meaningful acceleration in real income growth — to around 2% by end-2024 — as the gas shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fades. Rate hikes and fiscal policy will continue to weigh on growth across the G10 economies, but the worst of that drag has already happened, Hatzius writes. The team’s research shows that the maximum impact of monetary tightening on the growth rate (as opposed to level) of GDP occurs with a short lag of about two quarters. “We therefore expect a smaller drag from tighter financial conditions in 2024 than in 2023, even after factoring in the recent increase in long-term interest rates,” Hatzius writes. Industrial activity has been weak amid a rebalancing of spending back towards services from goods, the European energy crisis, an inventory cycle that had to correct for overbuilding in 2022, and a weaker-than-expected rebound in Chinese manufacturing. Most of these headwinds are forecast to fade this year, and manufacturing is expected to recover toward longer-term trend levels. The “most novel reason” to be optimistic about GDP growth is that central banks don’t need a recession to bring inflation down, and will therefore try hard to avoid one, Hatzius writes. Our economists’ analysis of past hiking cycles shows that major central banks are twice as likely to cut rates when there’s a risk to growth once inflation has normalized to sub-3% rates (relative to when inflation is above 5%). Will central banks cut interest rates next year? Policymakers in developed markets are unlikely to cut interest rates before the second half of 2024 unless economic growth proves weaker than anticipated, according to Goldman Sachs Research. In part, that view is based on our economists’ baseline forecasts, which expect inflation to remain modestly above target, unemployment rates to stay below their long-run levels, and GDP to grow roughly at trend pace in 2024. In emerging markets, policy cuts are expected to be announced sooner. Japan stands apart because its inflation pickup was largely desired. After three decades of anemic price pressures or outright deflation, wage increases in 2023 signalled that the Bank of Japan was moving towards its goal of establishing a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. The BoJ is therefore poised to move toward an exit from its policy of yield curve control in April 2024, although a formal abandonment of these measures is unlikely until October 2024, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Even so, Japanese inflation should remain far below the levels experienced by its G10 peers during this cycle. China also stands apart when it comes to policy stimulus, as authorities have sought to counteract sluggish economic growth. Our economists expect China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in 2024 as the boost from post-covid reopening fades, but partly offset by a slightly smaller housing drag, a modest rebound in global trade, and additional policy easing. The world’s second-largest economy still has challenges, however. Its property downturn is likely to endure, and there is still a risk that the resulting pessimism becomes entrenched. The country’s ongoing demographic deterioration and persistently shrinking working-age population will require it to reinvent its growth model. A modest cyclical rebound in exports is unlikely to reverse the ongoing diversification of global value chains away from China. “Near-term growth in China should benefit from further policy stimulus, but China’s multi-year slowdown will likely continue,” Hatzius writes. Source: https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-global-economy-will-perform-better-than-many-expect-in-2024.html#:~:text=,as%20it%20did%20in%202023

La temporada de fin de año es una de las de mayor gasto para los hogares, teniendo en cuenta que es época de reuniones en familia, aguinaldos, Navidad y Año Nuevo. Y aunque estas fechas están rodeadas de un fuerte significado emocional, es importante que las familias latinoamericanas planifiquen con inteligencia sus finanzas, especialmente en meses en los que las tasas de interés siguen altas y la inflación apenas comienza a retroceder en la mayoría de países. Estos son los 6 consejos para controlar las finanzas en el fin de año1. Elaborar un presupuesto: un presupuesto se basa en los ingresos seguros de la persona cada mes, y a partir de allí descontar los gastos fijos, el dinero destinado al ahorro y al pago de deudas, y el remanente que queda para los demás gastos. Estos últimos son los recursos que se pueden usar para las festividades, dijo la Asociación de Bancos Privados del Ecuador (Asobanca), en uno de sus contenidos. 2. Estar alerta con los gastos hormiga: este tipo de gastos, que parecen pequeños, siempre se acumulan. “Es época de celebración, por ende, puede que desees darte un par de gustos cuyos montos no son considerables. No obstante, si comienzas a pedir mucho de comida a domicilio, comprar decoraciones que te encuentras ocasionalmente, o haces clic en los anuncios de productos y suscripciones interesantes, poco a poco irás gastando tu presupuesto”, explicó el BBVA. 3. Aprovechar las ofertas: las últimas semanas de noviembre estarán marcadas por días de promociones como el ‘Black friday’, ‘Cyber monday’ y por otros días des ‘grandes descuentos’, que sirven para adelantar algunas compras y ahorrar antes de las fechas especiales de diciembre. 4. Usar con cuidado la tarjeta de crédito: esta tarjeta no es “dinero adicional en tu cuenta”, precisa Asobanca. La tarjeta de crédito es una línea que otorga un préstamo y por ello se debe ser responsable con su uso. “Al usar tu tarjeta piensa en la vida útil de las cosas: si lo que vas a pagar con tarjeta tiene una vida útil corta, entonces usa el pago corriente; en cambio, si lo que vas a comprar tiene una vida útil larga, puedes diferirlo en cuotas”. 5. No dejar para último momento: parte de gastar bien el dinero es la planeación. Desde noviembre se pueden realizar los presupuestos de diciembre, especialmente el dinero para ahorrar y que servirá para amortiguar las deudas en enero. 6. Regalos digitales: para no invertir altos montos en juguetería o dispositivos electrónicos, el BBVA recomienda invertir en tarjetas de regalo vendidas por librerías o consolas de videojuegos, suscripciones a servicios de lectura o aplicaciones útiles, y reducir los dineros invertidos en regalos. ¿Cómo hacer del ahorro un hábito? Aunque ahorrar es un reto para muchas personas, especialmente en épocas de alta inflación, esta es una técnica que sirve para conseguir estabilidad económica, alcanzar metas financieras y estar preparado para enfrentar emergencias económicas. Mibanco, empresa del Grupo Credicorp, compartió estos cinco consejos para crear el hábito de ahorrar: Plan de ahorros: la persistencia y la disciplina son fundamentales para establecer un hábito de ahorro duradero, para esto se debe crear un plan de ahorro, para planificar cuándo y cuánto se ahorrará en cada mes. Metas financieras: definir metas le ayudará a tener claridad sobre la razón detrás del ahorro y la cantidad necesaria. Además, contribuirá a mantener el autocontrol para no gastar en cosas innecesarias. Presupuesto mensual: llevar una lista y un registro detallado de los gastos durante el mes, proporcionará una visión más clara de los gastos y ayudará a identificar áreas donde se puede reducir o eliminar aquellos que son innecesarios. Para esto se debe hacer un seguimiento exhaustivo de las cuentas mensuales y compras adicionales. Pago de deudas: pagar las deudas lo más pronto posible, no solo ayudará a reducir gastos, sino que también permitirá evitar que los intereses de ciertos créditos consuman una parte significativa de los ingresos, lo que hace aún más difícil ahorrar. Esto podrá determinar cuánto dinero se dispone al final de cada mes y cuánto se debe destinar a ahorrar. Establecer un porcentaje ahorro: determinar un porcentaje de los ingresos que se desea ahorrar es esencial, ya que se obliga a destinar una parte de las entradas a una parte de los ahorros de manera consistente. Los expertos sugieren que sea el 10%; sin embargo, este porcentaje puede variar y ser flexible, lo que permite ajustarlo según las necesidades y metas financieras del mes. fuente: https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2023/11/12/seis-consejos-para-cuidar-sus-finanzas-personales-en-la-temporada-de-fin-de-ano/